Lets take a break from SQL and talk a little poker for those who give a shit.
This one is for all my fellow poker players, fans, enthusiasts etc... Most reading this blog who know me know I am an avid player and i do my best to make it to the WSOP if I can. While I normally stick to mixed game events (HORSE, 8Game etc) Every once in a blue I will play a No Limit Event either 6 max, shoot out, or heads up style.
While playing the 2011 WSOP this hand came up. Note I am not one for bad beat stores, as I have given many, and have taken many over the years and it sure has balanced out IMO. What I am interested in is if ANY math based player at all could have possibly NOT went broke when this hand / situation occurred or was it just destiny. I do NOT see how so spoiler alert I DID INDEED GO BROKE with this hand.
Event - $2500 No Limit Hold'Em
Set The Stage:
Blinds are 400/800
My Stack = 52,000
UDG Stack = 44,000
UDG+1 Stack = 115,200
UDG+2 Stack = 88,000
Avg Stack = 28,000
My Position = Button
Under The Gun player opens the pot for 2800 (his standard raise). This guy was loose to say the least. He had done this before and shown multi-way pots where he just decided to go nuts and make this play with 6-8 and 9-2 twice in the same orbit, and at the lower levels was even worse. UDG+2 and +3 both call... Just to add a bit more light to the subject, UDG+2 was your average ABC player, +3 was pretty solid and had some trickery to him. Very good all around player.
Gets to me I look down at QH - QD. I know I have to re-raise (in my mind anyway) I had no desire to play this hand even in position 4 ways. I opted to raise to 5600. My thinking on why a small re-pop was to me it would look super strong with others in the pot, and in the event I got re-raised because the nut was in the pot the person re-popping me would pretty much be polarizing his range as I had not show down a single bad hand in 8 hours of play. UDG folds (odd), UDG +1 flats (odder) UDG +3 folds (oddest). We take the flop heads up which is what I thought at the time I wanted... or so I THOUGHT.
Pot Size - 16,800
Flop - Qc-8h-8c (bingo!)... or so i THOUGHT!
Suckpot as I will call him checks, I bet out 1/2 pot. and he flat calls. This REEKED of over pair as I could not see him calling with anything that had an 8 in his hand. 7-8 suited, no dice not him. not with all that pre-flop action this is a guy who folded jacks on the button to a 3 bet pot when he had both the other stacks covered. A bit nitty to say the least. Remembering that Jacks fold. (he folded face up) is kind of what got the idea of 8-8 out of my head as well.
Pot Size - 36,400
Turn - 2c
Board - Qc-8h-8c-2c
Seems like a great card for me, but then again they ALL do at this point. Now Suckpot bets out 17,500. My thought was to ship right here but thinking of the hands other than 8-8 he could have had, there was nothing that I didn't want to see. AA, KK, AcQx XcXc (most likely) 78, Q8, 82 (for arguments sake) I opt to just call which proved to be my fatal mistake HOWEVER even if I had shoved. I did NOT IMO have much fold equity at all as the pot would have been 53,900 and I only had another 20,500. I already had 50% of my stack invested.
My hope is that he has either hit his flush, or made a lower boat. Well nothing, and I do mean NOTHING could have prepped me for what happened on the river.
River - 2s
Board - Qc-8h-8c-2c-2s
He checks pretty much knowing as well as I did before the river I was going to ship it. After seeing what he had even if i didn't ship it, he would have moved in on me if I bet say 1/2 my remaining stack to make it look like a real REAL sucker bet anyway. As soon as he check I insta-shove. He snap calls. Now yes, what I seen was sick, what he beat me with was horrible, and I can go on and on about how bad it was to be felted by this hand and all of that but I will save all of that for another article when i feel like complaining. He tables 2h-2d. Gross yes, but my question for this article and anyone who cares to analyze this hand from a math / game theory perspective is this...
Is there ANY way I could have played this hand differently and not went broke. If so please explain how and why because maybe there is a line I have missed or something I didn't see. How do I ever come away from that hand with chips in front of me?